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Background: Chemical weapons are among the most non-humanistic types of man-made weapons. These gases can cause problems like breathing disorders and other serious illnesses, such that nearly 80 percent of wounded people in Iran have signs of coughing, exuding, and asthma. The aim of this study is to use the results of spirometry tests that are cheap in calculating the probability of illnesses in those exposed. Materials and Methods: In this cross-sectional-analytic study, data related to 1865 individuals wounded by chemical weapons in Sardasht who had been exposed to sulfur mustard were extracted from the existing medical files in Bonyad Janbazan Office. Data analysis was done through the logistic regression method while for evaluating the validity of this model, COX- SNEL was utilized. The spirometry device used in this study was Chest HI801 which was made in Japan. Results: Women formed %23.6 of the population and the rest %76.4 were men. Also, %48.7of the participants were under 40 and %51.3 were 40 and above. Mean age of men was 45.2(11.27) while this was 48.53(14.43) for women. Totally, %48.6 of participants were ill while %51.4 were reported to be healthy. Mean of FEV1 was measured to be 81.78 (21.81) and regression model parameters were as follows: constant =0.465, sex= -0.478, age= 0/29, and FEV1= -0/128. Conclusion: Through the obtained model, the probability of disease incidence in those exposed to sulfur mustard can be computed in a more economic way which can compete with the more expensive, invasive methods.

Keywords: Chemical weapons, Disease incidence, FEV1, Probability, Sulfur mustard, Surrogate

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