Volume 26, Issue 3 (August & September 2023)                   J Arak Uni Med Sci 2023, 26(3): 51-61 | Back to browse issues page


XML Persian Abstract Print


Download citation:
BibTeX | RIS | EndNote | Medlars | ProCite | Reference Manager | RefWorks
Send citation to:

Asghari M, Fallah Ghalhari G, Abbasinia M, Ebadifard Azar F, Shakeri F, Ghanadzade M J, et al . Prediction of Changes in Temperature-Humidity Index in the Coming Decades According to the Climate Change Phenomenon based on Radiative Forcing Scenarios in a Dry Climate. J Arak Uni Med Sci 2023; 26 (3) :51-61
URL: http://jams.arakmu.ac.ir/article-1-7519-en.html
1- Department of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
2- Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Natural Resources and Earth Sciences, University of Kashan, Kashan, Iran
3- Department of Occupational Health Engineering, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
4- Department of Health Economics, School of Health Management and Information Sciences, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
5- PhD of Urban Climatology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Khorasan-Razavi, Iran
6- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, Faculty of Health, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
7- School of Health, Torbat Heydariyeh University of Medical Sciences, Torbat Heydariyeh, Iran
8- Department of Industrial Engineering, Islamic Azad University West Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran
9- Assistant Professor of Health Policy Health Promotion Research Center, Iran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran , hossein_comely1367@yahoo.com
Abstract:   (207 Views)
Introduction: One of the biggest environmental challenges of the 21st century is the phenomenon of climate change and global warming, which can cause numerous health problems. One significant health issue associated with climate change is the increase in the prevalence of heat stress, particularly in occupational encounters in hot outdoor environments. So this study aimed to predict and model temperature and humidity indices in the coming decades in a dry climate.
Methods: This study obtained daily atmospheric parameters, including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and relative humidity of Kerman station, representing a dry climate, for a period of 30 years (1965 to 2005) from the meteorological organization. Modeling of these parameters and calculation of the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) were performed using the atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM2-ES and the CORDEX dynamic microscaler model. Three different radiative forcing scenarios, including optimistic (RCP 2.6), intermediate (RCP 4.5), and pessimistic (RCP 8.5), were considered for the coming decades (three 30-year periods from 2011 to 2099). The Ethics Committe of Iran University of Medical Sciences (IUMS) approved the present study (Code: IR.IUMS.REC.1400.020).
Results: The results of the study showed an increasing trend for minimum and maximum temperature parameters in all three time periods using the three scenarios considered. Moreover, the increase in temperature in the decades of 2099-2071 was more pronounced compared to the previous decades. The results also demonstrated an increasing trend in the THI index based on all three scenarios. The average results obtained using these scenarios showed an increase of 2.11, 2.53, and 3.3 degrees Celsius, respectively, in this index until the end of the last century compared to the base decades.
Conclusions: Overall, the increase in temperature and the investigated THI index in the studied station, based on all three scenarios, will lead to changes in thermal comfort. Higher levels of thermal discomfort will not only occur in hot months and seasons but also in other seasons. Therefore, proper planning should be implemented to address the adverse effects of climate change on people's health.
Full-Text [PDF 884 kb]   (7 Downloads)    
Type of Study: Original Atricle | Subject: Health
Received: 2023/10/3 | Accepted: 2023/08/1

Add your comments about this article : Your username or Email:
CAPTCHA

Send email to the article author


Rights and permissions
Creative Commons License This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

© 2024 CC BY-NC 4.0 | Journal of Arak University of Medical Sciences

Designed & Developed by : Yektaweb